At one time I sold a digital product on Quick Sprout that allowed me to test a free trial vs a money back guarantee.
To lift conversions, I ran a series of pricing and risk-reversal experiments:
- $197 with no free trial and no money-back guarantee.
- $197 with a 30-day money-back guarantee.
- $197 with a 7-day free trial requiring a credit card upfront.
- $197 with a 7-day free trial requiring a credit card upfront and a 30-day money-back guarantee after the trial.
Here’s what I learned:
Guarantees help build trust
At first there wasn’t a free trial or a money-back guarantee. I simply charged $197—if you loved it, awesome; if not, you were out $197.
I quietly honored refunds for unhappy customers, but buyers couldn’t see that upfront—so perceived risk was high and conversions lagged.
Adding a visible 30-day money-back guarantee increased sales by 21%. Of those purchasers, 12% requested refunds.
Using simple math: if the original offer sold 100 units a month at $197 ($19,700 revenue), the guarantee boosted gross revenue by 21% to $23,837. After 12% refunds, net revenue landed at $20,977.
Net-net, the guarantee lifted monthly revenue by about 6.5%.
Free trials create the most signups
The gap between a money-back guarantee and a free trial was big. Roughly twice as many people started a 7-day trial (credit card required) compared with buying under the guarantee-only offer.
To keep the math consistent with the example above: if the guarantee version yielded 121 purchases (a 21% lift from 100), the free-trial version generated about 242 trial starts in the same period.
Front-end volume looked great, but the back-end told the real story. About 33% of trial users canceled during the 7 days, leaving roughly 162 potential billings.
Then payment friction kicked in. Even after validating credit cards at sign-up, only about 78% of those post-trial accounts successfully billed at $197. That’s 126 successful charges—meaning around 36 cards failed due to insufficient funds, bank declines, or authentication issues.
Bottom line: the 7-day trial still outperformed the guarantee on revenue—by about 18% in my example ($24,822 vs. $20,977)—but expect drop-off between trial start and successful billing.
The key takeaway: some people start trials knowing they may not end up paying, and a meaningful percentage will fail billing because of card limits, bank rules, or cross-border payment hurdles. Plan for that leakage.
People don’t care about a guarantee when there is a free trial
I also tested a 7-day free trial plus a 30-day money-back guarantee after the trial. Offering both didn’t change front-end trial starts, and virtually no one requested a refund after being billed.
In practice, the presence of the free trial made the post-trial guarantee irrelevant for conversion.
Conclusion
Here’s how the scenarios shake out on revenue using the same $197 price and the assumptions above:
- Original offer (no guarantee / no trial): $19,700 a month
- 30-day money-back guarantee: $20,977 a month
- 7-day free trial with credit card upfront: $24,822 a month
- 7-day free trial with credit card upfront + 30-day guarantee: $24,822 a month
These were my results but yours may differ based on audience, product, and payment mix.
Don’t assume my winner will be yours—you must run A/B tests to find out what works for you best.